With sports betting legalized in Massachusetts for over a year, any fans in the Commonwealth are sure to partake in the variety of gambling options for one of the biggest sports events of the year, The Super Bowl. According to NBC News around 68 million Americans are expected to bet a total of 23 billion dollars.

In the most recent odds from CBS Sports going into the game, the 49ers are two-point favorites, so statistically, we´re in for a great game. Kick-off for the thirty-fourth Superbowl is set at 6:30 p.m. EST at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Though I can’t legally place these bets, here’s what I would do if I could:

Criteria

The location and conditions of the Superbowl are crucial to what I consider success in these predictions. I have taken into consideration that this Superbowl is being played on the grass and that it is only the fifth Superbowl to be played in an indoor stadium. Using those conditions, I will focus my predictions on receiving yards and receptions only. 

My Picks

I am basing all my picks off of the lines on Sleeper Fantasy 

Receiving Yards 

Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards 

My first pick for the Superbowl is Travis Kelce to go over on his line of 70.5 receiving yards. Kelce shines brightest in the playoffs, especially the Superbowl. In the playoffs this season Kelce is averaging 87 receiving yards and a touchdown per game. In Kelce’s last Superbowl appearance vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, he had six receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. To add to that the 49ers have allowed the second most receiving yards to tight ends since week 11. Personally, this pick is a no-brainer.

Deebo Samuel under 58.5 receiving yards

Deebo Samuel will go under his line of 58.5 receiving yards because he struggles heavily against man defense which the Chiefs utilize frequently. According to Fantasy Football Fellas, he only averages 8 receiving yards against man-to-man defense. Also, Deebo Samuel has only exceeded 58.5 receiving yards in 1 of his last 6 games. Deebo Samuel is one of many weapons on this 49ers offense he has evenly shared 38 targets over the last 6 games with the WR2 on the team Bradon Aiyuk. Not only is he competing for targets with his wide receivers, but also his running back Christian McCaffrey who has had 33 targets over the last 6 games. So if Samuel is not producing early in the game the targets will be dispersed elsewhere making it so he will have less than 58.5 receiving yards.

Receptions 

Rashee Rice will have over 6.5 receptions  

25 playoff targets 20 REC   TK 27 playoff targets  23 rec

Rashee Rice will have more than 6.5 receptions in the Superbowl. Rookie Rashee Rice started off the season slow but has now established himself as Patrick Mahomes’s favorite target besides Travis Kelce. This season in the playoffs Rice has 25 targets and 20 receptions for an average of 6.6 receptions a game. In both the Wild Card and the Conference Championship Rice had 8 receptions. Outside of the playoffs Rice also averages 6.6 receptions over his last 6 games. Rice’s receptions have been very consistent lately so I don’t expect anything to change as he goes into the biggest game of the year.

Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions

Even though Christian McCaffery is one of the best rushers in the league he is also utilized heavily in the 49ers passing offense. I feel that his line of 4.5 receptions is far too low. The Superbowl is the biggest stage in football and Christian McCaffrey was in the MVP conversation this season, Big time players make big-time plays when it matters most. To back that up McCaffrey is averaging 5.5 receptions in the playoffs this season. On top, the 49ers face the great pass rush that the Cheifs bring to the table so they will most likely target Mccaffery extra on short dump-offs and rely on his yards after catch instead of forcing the ball downfield whilst the Quarterback is facing pressure.