As March Madness begins today, here are four teams overlooked in the tournament that could easily go on a run, making it to the Elite Eight.
Saint Mary’s Ca:
photo by Tod Fierner (Tod Fierner)
Saint Mary’s is the highest seed on the list but has been overlooked throughout the season. They have a lengthy, defense-heavy roster full of veterans who have experienced the tournament before. Their offense is very slow and methodical consisting of five 10+ point scorers. Saint Mary’s defense makes them a nightmare for any team in the West region. Their 58.7 Opp Pts/G is second in the tournament and third in the country this year. They almost always have the bigger guards and forwards which allows them to slow down top scorers and force them into contested shots. Their record is the most underrated part of their team, they went 26-7 this year with wins against multiple Mountain West teams and two wins against five-seed Gonzaga. Their first-round matchup is quite tough for a 5-12 matchup but if they make it past GCU the round of 32 is almost a free pass to the Sweet Sixteen. Their toughest matchup will almost definitely come against one seed UNC who are arguably the most fraudulent one seed, having many losses and close games to bottom-of-the-barrel ACC teams. St. Mary’s will have to slow games down and try to limit guard play from some teams in the west to make it to the Elite Eight.
Texas:
Texas is the second sleeper team this year due mostly to their record. They are 20-12 and 5-5 in their last 10 games and on the surface, they look like potential first-round exits. Once you look at their schedule you realize how much potential they have to make a sweet 16 or elite eight run this year. Four of their five recent losses came against four seeds or higher in the tournament, two of those losses being by eight points and five points. Texas was a two seed in the tournament last year and made it to the Elite Eight and their roster has not changed as much as you would think. They are led by junior guard Max Abmas, who led Oral Roberts in their Cinderella run in 2021. Their frontcourt is held down by senior forward Dylan Disu, who is averaging seven more points than he did last year while still being an anchor defensively. Texas is full of tournament experience and knows how to win close games. Their round of 32 matchup will most likely be against two seed Tennessee and I think this is the perfect matchup for Texas. Tennessee has struggled to contain dynamic guards this year and Texas has two of them. Their sweet 16 matchup could be 3 seed Creighton will be their toughest matchup but Texas is a very well-rounded team who can hit free throws which is always a recipe for an upset in March.
Colorado:
When looking for Cinderella teams you have to look at past teams, when I reviewed UCLA’s 2021 run I quickly realized how similar they are to Colorado. Both play-in teams, both led by guards who can score consistently and both having a strong and balanced starting five. KJ Simpson is the star Buffalo averaging 20, 6 and 5. What Colorado does best is get open shots. They are top 7 in the nation in both field goal percentage and three-point percentage and also 16th in free throw percentage. Colorado has an average defense and can rebound pretty well but if they can beat Boise State to get into the tournament their game against Florida will be a shootout. The 2 seed of the south division is Marquette, a banged-up team who has had past struggles in the tournament. Colorado could easily win that game having a comparable big three two Marquette, which is something a majority of teams can’t say. If Colorado can play to their full offensive potential they could easily take down Marquette. Kentucky is the most probable Sweet Sixteen matchup and that is very winnable. Colorado clears Kentucky defensively and Colorado can hang with any team offensively.
McNeese State:
McNeese State is a popular upset pick and for good reason. Statistically, they match up well with most of the powerhouse teams this year. They are top eight in field goal percentage and three-point percentage and are coached as well as any team in the nation. Their 30-3 record is second-best in the tournament and they have the third-best turnover margin in all of college basketball. They face a misplaced fifth seed, Gonzaga. Gonzaga doesn’t turn the ball over much and plays slow. McNeese’s guard play is too much for Gonzaga to handle and I think they can easily outscore Gonzaga. Their second round could be the easiest in the bracket; they either play a 13th seed in Samford or a Kansas team with both stars hurt. McNeese could play TCU, Utah State, or Purdue and they will be able to turn over any of those teams and their experienced coach will lead them through any team in the Midwest region. What holds McNeese back is their schedule, they haven’t played any top 25 teams and have only played one tournament team. Mcneese’s star player is senior guard Shahada Wells, who is a dominant scorer, game manager and is going to hard for teams to contain.
