Prelims:
Pedro Munhoz (+193) vs. Kyler Phillips (-219)
The UFC 299 prelims start with two well-rounded fighters who haven’t fought since August. The favorite, Kyler Phillips is coming off of a decision win against Raoni Barcelos while Pedro Munhoz is coming off of a decision loss against Marlon Vera. The reason Muhnoz’s loss doesn’t put him at a disadvantage going into this fight is that the fighter he lost a semi-close decision to is fighting for a title while Phillips’ last opponent is a fighter who has never been in the top 15 for the bantamweight and Phillips couldn’t finish him. Munhoz goes into this fight as the underdog mostly because of his record. Munhoz has 8 losses in the UFC to Phillips 1. I could see a world where Phillips reaches his potential and dominates Munhoz and submits to him. But I think due to Phillips’ weak opponents and the sparse amount of UFC fights he will disappoint and Munhoz will dominate him on the feet. Munhoz has become more of a technical striker throughout his years in the UFC so I think Munhoz could have a chance by staying on his feet and working his jab on Phillips but Phillips’ past against boxers is very consistent and I think he will find a way to get Munhoz down and win a close decision. (Phillips by Dec.)
Mateusz Gamrot (-330) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (+245)
Mateusz Gamrot is a rising star in the lightweight division being tested by 16-year veteran Rafael Dos Anjos. Gamrot got his first UFC fight at the late age of 29 and ever since then, he has been working his way to the middleweight title defeating very respectable opponents including Arman Tsarukyan and most recently Rafael Fiziev. Rafael Dos Anjos feels like a filler opponent to “test” Gamrot. Dos Anjos last fight was a 5-round decision loss to Vincent Luque where he looked better than most people expected. Gamrot is a much harder opponent for Dos Anjos and honestly, there is almost no chance he wins. I could see Gamrot winning anyway he wants if the fight goes to the ground Gamrot’s submission game is good enough to make Dos Anjos tap. If Gamrot wants to stay standing I could see Gamrot using his power to knock out Dos Anjos. I think if Dos Anjos has any chance of winning it is standing and using his fighting IQ and his stamina to wear out Gamrot and eventually dominate him later on. If I had to decide I would say Gamrot takes Dos Anjos down in the second and ends up ground and pounding him to the win. (Gamrot by round 2 TKO)
Katlyn Chookagian (+164) vs. Maycee Barber (-198)
Maycee Barber and Katlyn Chookagian face off in the first and only women’s fight in the prelims and main card. Barber comes into this fight with a 5 fight win-streak and 4 of them have gone to the judges. Chookagian is returning after not fighting for the entirety of 2023 and her last fight was a decision loss to Manon Fiorot. In Chookagian’s time in the UFC, she has only won her fights by decision. Chookagian is strongest when she can slow down her opponent’s striking and gain control time on the ground. Barber’s last fight was her first knockout win but that fight showed more of her stamina and chin. Barber could get into a rhythm early and hit Chookagian with a number of kicks and punches but I think with Chookagian’s experience she will be able to get Barber to the ground. This won’t be a bad thing for Barber though because of her grappling abilities. In past fights, Chookagian would win her decisions because of her dominance on the ground but I see Barber holding her own on the ground and using her quantity of strikes to take the decision win over Chookagian. (Barber by Dec.)
Curtis Blaydes (-112) vs. Jailton Almeida (-108)
One of the most feared submission artists in Heavyweight history tries to keep his undefeated UFC record against a UFC veteran who has knockouted many heavyweights in his past. There is no favorite in this fight, both fighters have perfected their specific martial art. This fight was first scheduled for Nov. 4 2023 but Blaydes dropped out due to injury. Almeida dominated his sub (Derrick Lewis) by practically laying on him for five rounds. I doubt this happens to Blaydes though solely off of the fact that in the past 7 years and 14 fights, Blaydes has been taken down a total of 1 time. Almeida’s style is pure grappling and he will try to take you down early and often. Blayde’s style is more versatile and he has many knockouts under his belt but also incorporates many clinches and surprise shots when the time is right. If this fight was five rounds I would almost definitely take Almeida because, in those last two rounds, Almeida would break him and be able to submit or win off of control time. This 3 round prelim fight is a lot more geared towards Blaydes and Blaydes could stay on the feet for longer than Almeida’s prior opponents. If Blayde uses as much power as usual he is taking a big risk, it could give him an early knockout win but if he tires out in the slightest bit Almeida will get him to the ground and submit him. Almeida knows how he has to win this fight and it is by using his usual grappling strategy but Almeida has to be a lot more cautious on the feet than usual. I think Almeida will survive the big shots from Blayde’s and wear him out and by the third round get his anticipated submission win. (Almeida by round 3 submission)
Main Card:
Song Yadong (+114) vs. Petr Yan (-135)
The UFC 299 main card kicks off with a battle of two of the sharpest boxers in the bantamweight division. The favorite Petr Yan is on a 3 fight-losing streak and hasn’t fought in almost a year. The underdog Song Yadong is on a two-fight win streak with his most recent win being 3 months ago against Chris Gutierrez. This alone would make you think Yadong has the momentum going into this fight but this is nowhere close to the adversity Yan has faced in the past. Yan has defeated many legendary fighters in the past including Cory Sandhagen, Jose Aldo, and Ulijah Faber. Yadong on the other hand has fought some respectable fighters but not close to the degree of Yan. Both fighters have multiple knockout wins under their belts but I’d say the edge goes to Yan on the ground but not by enough to sway the fight completely. On the feet these fighters are almost identical, they both throw a lot of different looks at you but Yan is a bit more powerful while Yadong is more quick and sharp. If Yan approaches this fight the same way he did against O’Malley I think he will lose, Yan needs to be very aggressive and get up in Yadong’s face. If Yadong is going to win this fight he needs to stay on his feet try to get his jab going and use his muay Thai skills to catch Yan with elbows and knees when Yan rushes in. I think Yan’s hiatus has been too long and he hasn’t looked great in a while. I think Yadong gets his striking going early and I think Yadong dominates this fight. I don’t think Yan gets finished because of his chin but I think Yadong will look more accurate and quick on the feet than Yan for all 15 minutes. (Yadong by Dec.)
Gilbert Burns (+100) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-125)
In a stacked welterweight, the #4 ranked fighter tries to take down one of the most talented prospects in the UFC. Burns comes into this fight as the underdog which is nothing new to him. Burns has faced some of the best welterweights in history but what makes this fight different is Burns is 37. Della Maddalena on the other hand is 27 and is undefeated in his first 5 UFC fights. Maddalena is a pure boxer, he has shown power and technical skill in the past. Burns is more versatile, he can hold his own against boxers but he will try to take this fight to the ground. Burns is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt which has helped him accumulate 5 submission wins in the UFC. What is helping me predict this fight is Burns’ 2022 fight against Khamzat Chimaev. Chimaev was never tested in the UFC which is very similar to Della Maddalena and Burns completely slowed down Chimaev and he almost won a decision. I think Della Maddalena will be easier to stop for Burns and once Burns makes his reads and finds the perfect chance to shoot he will take Della Maddalena down and submit him by arm triangle in the second round. The opposite outcome is almost just as likely, Della Maddalena could expose Burns’s defense and gas tank and use his counter-striking against Burns to win by decision but I lean the slightest bit towards Burns. (Burns by round 2 submission)
Kevin Holland (-135) vs. Michael Page (+114)
A Bellator legend debuts in the UFC against one of the toughest fighters the company has. Michael Page is widely regarded as one of the goats of the MMA company Bellator, having 17 wins and only 2 losses. 11 of Page’s wins have come from knockout in the past but I am almost certain Page will have to find another way to win this fight. Holland has had a rocky road in the UFC but that doesn’t stop him from taking any fight offer the UFC gives him. In Holland’s 7 UFC losses he has never been knocked out, in his fight against Stephen Thompson he lost the fight due to a doctor’s stoppage but Holland still wanted to fight. Both fighters specialize in striking but have submission wins under their belt. I could see this fight going to the ground where Holland has the slight upper hand being a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. If Holland decides he wants to try and out-strike Page he will have a lot to deal with. Page is known for his different styles and looks he gives you. Holland has dealt with wacky strikers in the past but nobody with the power and quickness of Page. Holland’s ego could lead him to stand with Page but once the first round ends I think Holland will know he has to close distance and get a hold of Page to get him to the ground. If Holland can do this I don’t think he has the dominance to submit Page, who has never been submitted. If Page can stay on his feet for the majority of this fight I think he damages Holland a lot but not enough to get a knockout in 15 minutes. Once this fight is over I think Page will have his first UFC win under his belt. (Page by Dec.)
Benoit Saint-Denis (-215) vs. Dustin Porier (+170)
The first 5 round bout of UFC 299 consists of a 28-year-old UFC prospect trying to work his way to a title shot by defeating former interim champ Dustin Poirier. 35-year-old Porier has been one of the faces of the UFC since the start of the 2010s. He’s coming off of a brutal KO loss to Justin Gaethje while Saint-Denis is on a 5 fight-win streak. Both fighters are recognized for their striking, Saint-Denis is a judo black belt and Porier is one of the all-time great UFC boxers. This fight will be a bloodbath resembling Porier’s fight against Dan Hooker. Both fighters are known to throw a lot of strikes with a lot of power leaving them tired in the later rounds. If this fight hits the third round we could see a contender for fight of the year. The other likely outcome is that Saint-Denis catches Porier with a head kick or a knee in the first two rounds. If Porier wants to win this fight he’s going to have to lay off the power shots in the first 2 rounds and play mostly defense. Once the later rounds hit he should build up damage and use his crisp boxing against Saint-Denis. Porier’s biggest disadvantage is his age which might make it hard for him to be the same fighter he was after being knocked out. I think Saint-Denis will take advantage of this and overpower Porier early and land a knee to end the fight. (Saint-Denis round 2 TKO)
Sean O’Malley (-280) vs. Marlon Vera (+225)
Sean O’Malley’s first title defense comes against his biggest rival and only loss, Marlon Vera. O’Malley has all the momentum possible coming into this fight, he became the bantamweight champion and one of the biggest stars in UFC history. Vera is also coming off of a win at UFC 293. This fighter’s first fight was a controversial win for Vera after Vera landed a leg kick that shut off a peroneal nerve which led O’Malley to fall to the ground and get TKO’ed. O’Malley considers that fight a fluke while the fans are split 50/50 on it. O’Malley is one of the best strikers in the UFC having the 4th most significant strikes in one fight with 230. O’Malley is a versatile kickboxer who relies a lot on his lead leg which helps him throw a wide range of kicks and switch stance often. Vera is more of a balanced fighter but still brilliant on the feet. Vera is known for his great fighting IQ and his ability to attack fighters’ weaknesses very well. Vera will most likely take the same route he did in fight one where he attacked O’malley’s lead leg and made it harder for him to stay agile. O’Malley has grown a lot defensively since their first fight in 2020 and O’Malley being the quicker fighter will try to keep distance and stay on his toes. If Vera wants to obtain the belt he will need to work the leg kicks early and close distance often. Vera will overpower O’Malley in this fight if he can get a hold of him and land clinch strikes. If O’Malley wants to stay at the top of the bantamweight division he will need to take the same approach he did in his last fight against Aljamain Sterling, jab to keep distance and catch Vera with power knees and hooks when Vera rushes in. I think this fight will last a little bit longer than O’Malley’s last fight due to Vera’s IQ but I don’t think Vera has the quickness or the power to beat O’Malley. This fight will be a lot easier for O’Malley than his last fight because he doesn’t have to worry about any quick takedowns. O’Malley will beat up Vera in the first two rounds and finish him with punches in the third round. (O’Malley by third-round TKO)
